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It was eight weeks prior that Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while his coach scolded him for missing a through-ball. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his performances were a sign or the reason of Villa's more general malaise.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. After the in-form star drilled in his second to reinstate Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team continued to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Challengers?

That’s an exceptionally difficult query to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, while the wins have stacked up.

Per the data, in only two games has the team registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team which has put together 10 in a row, Villa appear strangely fragile – yet currently the fine lines are going in their favour.

The Reliant Strategy

The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to rescue them with a couple of precise efforts. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired in London, and again when facing Manchester United.

The initial strike came from an exquisite effort, arced precisely inside the post from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Is It Sustainable?

Logic says not. Against United, the opposition registered more shots and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.

A statistical correction might be the biggest rival they must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling the ball past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.

Reasons for Optimism

Could it be an alternative path where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.

• Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
• The attacking talent might become the player he resembled in Germany.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.

Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine the young forward now would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like an essential Three Lions star.

This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner stood in front of the North End after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.