A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
